sailboat market crash

Is The Boat Market Crash Here? 2024 Outlook Unveils Key Insights

The boat market has been experiencing a rollercoaster ride over the past few years. COVID-19 and other factors have caused fluctuations in sales, demand, and pricing. As we sail into 2024, many are wondering whether a boat market crash is imminent, or if the industry will continue to find stable waters.

Analyzing the current state of the market and its many implications is vital for both potential boat buyers and industry insiders looking to navigate the uncertain waters ahead.

Various factors come into play when considering if the boat market will crash or remain steady in 2024. As the world grapples with pandemic aftermath and economic recovery, boat pricing dynamics, industry supply chains, and boater behavior/preferences become critical in predicting the market's trajectory.

Furthermore, regional market considerations, financing and ownership costs, and even boat shows and industry events play crucial roles in shaping the boating industry's outlook.

Key Takeaways

• The boat market's stability in 2024 depends on multiple factors, including economic recovery and boater preferences.
• Supply chain issues and regional market dynamics also contribute to potential fluctuations in the boat market.
• Financing and ownership costs can impact boat sales and industry events, highlighting the industry's economic context.

State of the Boat Market in 2024

Current Demand and Sales Trends

In 2024, the boat market is experiencing some significant shifts in demand and sales. The bigger boat market remains strong, while the small boat market is seeing a slowdown in interest.

As mentioned on boatblurb.com , vessels under 30 feet are less popular, experiencing a cold market. The slower sales in this segment may be attributed to the economic climate, as financing rates for these are higher.

In contrast, larger boats are enjoying a booming market, with sustained high prices. According to sportfishhub.com , new boat prices increased 10% on average in 2022 and are forecasted to rise another 2-5% in 2023. Popular brands and models may see waitlists extending into 2024.

Impact of High Inflation and Interest Rates

High inflation and fluctuating interest rates are not sparing the boating industry. As mentioned in the Future of Boating Report , these factors have significantly changed the industry.

With increased production costs, boat manufacturers are transferring the expenses to the buyers, increasing the prices substantially.

Moreover, high inflation and interest rates are affecting consumer purchasing behaviors. As mentioned on thehulltruth.com , boat prices are experiencing a 10% drop in some areas, signaling a potential market stabilization by the end of 2024. This trend might be driven by less-financing options for boats older than 15 years, limiting the number of potential buyers.

Pandemic Aftermath and Economic Recovery

Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Boating

The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the recreational boating industry. Demand skyrocketed as people sought outdoor activities that allowed for social distancing and a respite from lockdown restrictions. This led to a boom in boat sales during the height of the pandemic.

However, as the pandemic is gradually brought under control and the economy starts to stabilize, the outdoor-recreation boom appears to be tapering off.

A major factor contributing to this decline is the increase in interest rates in the United States, which has made financing boat purchases more expensive. This has led to a dip in boat sales as buyers reconsider their options.

Additionally, the industry faces challenges in the form of inflation and supply chain disruptions, which have increased the costs of production and put upward pressure on prices for consumers.

Comparative Analysis: Pre and Post-Pandemic Market Conditions

Before the pandemic, the recreational boating market was already growing steadily. The COVID-19 pandemic created a sudden surge in demand that exceeded pre-pandemic levels. Here's a brief comparison of some key metrics:

• Annual boat sales : During the pandemic, there was a significant increase in boat sales. However, analysts now predict that the demand will taper off in the post-pandemic market conditions.
• Consumer behavior : Prior to the pandemic, outdoor recreation and boating were popular leisure activities. The pandemic intensified this trend, as people sought safe outdoor experiences. The shift may be temporary, with the market potentially returning to its pre-pandemic trajectory once the broader economy recovers.
• Economic factors : Before the pandemic, interest rates were relatively low, making it easier for individuals to finance boat purchases. As economic conditions have evolved and interest rates have risen, this has introduced an additional hurdle for potential boat buyers.
• Supply chain and inflation : Supply chain disruptions and inflationary pressures have affected the boat industry just like other sectors of the economy. While these factors were already present before the pandemic, they have been exacerbated by global economic disruptions during the last few years.

Boat Pricing Dynamics

New Boat Price Trends

In recent years, the boat market has experienced some significant fluctuations in pricing. New boat prices saw an average increase of 10% in 2022 , and experts anticipate this trend to continue.

The projected rise for 2023 is between 2-5%, with prices expected to remain higher than pre-pandemic levels into 2024. Several factors are contributing to this upward trend:

• Supply chain disruptions : As the shipping and manufacturing industries grapple with the ongoing effects of the pandemic, the availability of boat parts and materials is hindered, leading to increased costs.
• Demand : With more people interested in boating activities as a form of recreation or escape from daily life, demand for new boats has surged, driving prices up as well.

Used Boat Market Analysis

The used boat market has also experienced price changes, though they may vary depending on various factors, such as the age and condition of the boat.

For example, a 5-year-old, 25-foot center console boat that originally sold for $100K could now fetch between $60-80K on the used market.

As for the future outlook of the used boat market , it is challenging to predict with certainty. Some predictions suggest that a decrease in prices is possible, with factors such as inventory stabilization and eventual changes in demand potentially driving this trend. However, the broader economic conditions also play a significant role in determining the price movement.

Boating Industry's Supply Chain

Inventory Management Strategies

In recent years, the boating industry has experienced significant fluctuations in supply and demand. One of the key challenges for manufacturers and dealers is to maintain an optimal inventory level to meet the evolving market.

Some proactive inventory management strategies include:

• Demand forecasting : Regularly assessing demand trends, seasonality, and market dynamics enables better prediction of future needs.
• Automated reorder points : Implementing technology to track stock levels and automatically trigger replenishment orders can help prevent stockout situations.
• Vendor partnerships : Developing strong relationships with suppliers enables better collaboration and communication, which is crucial during supply chain disruptions .

Supply Chain Issues and Resolutions

In recent years, the boating industry faced supply chain disruptions that have impacted the availability of 2023 inventory.

Limited inventory levels have led to increased prices and longer wait times for popular brands and models.

Some of the key supply chain related challenges in the boating industry include:

• Supply chain disruptions : Global events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, have impacted the supply of raw materials and components, leading to production delays and backorders.
• Labor shortages : Skilled workforce scarcity in manufacturing plants has contributed to reduced production capacity.
• Transportation bottlenecks : Insufficient transportation capacity or delays due to port congestions may result in extended lead times.

To address these supply chain issues, manufacturers and suppliers in the boating industry have implemented various strategies. These include:

• Diversification of suppliers : Reducing dependence on a single supplier helps mitigate risks related to production delays or supplier bankruptcy.
• Regionalization of supply chains : By sourcing materials and manufacturing closer to their markets, companies can build resilient supply chains less vulnerable to global disruptions.
• Investment in digital transformation : Adopting digital tools can enable better transparency and traceability, ensuring efficient communication among supply chain partners.

Boater Behavior and Preferences

Shifts in Consumer Demand

In recent years, the boating industry has observed a shift in consumer demand towards more versatile, eco-friendly, and technologically advanced boats.

Consumers are increasingly seeking out boats with efficient fuel consumption and lower emissions, as environmental concerns become more prominent.

One popular trend is the growing interest in electric and hybrid boats, as they offer a cleaner and quieter boating experience.

Additionally, well-maintained used boats have become an attractive option for budget-conscious boaters who prioritize sustainability.

Advancements in technology have also driven changes in boater preferences.

Autonomous features such as auto docking have gained popularity, as they simplify the boating experience and make it more accessible to a wider range of consumers.

Thanks to cutting-edge sensors, GPS systems, and smart algorithms, docking has become significantly easier and safer.

Buying Behavior of Recreational Boaters

Recreational boaters have also shown a shift in their buying behavior.

With the high demand and delayed availability of new boats, many boaters are now considering the secondary market.

A key driver of this trend is the growing appreciation for well-maintained used boats that offer comparable performance to new models at a fraction of the cost.

Budget-conscious consumers are now more inclined to explore financing, leasing, or even boat-sharing options to fulfill their boating desires.

Moreover, some potential boat buyers have turned to alternative water-based activities, such as kayaking or stand-up paddleboarding, to satiate their thirst for aquatic experiences.

In response to these changes, the boating industry has had to adapt its offerings, promotions, and marketing strategies to cater to the evolving preferences of the modern boater.

Many manufacturers and dealers are now focusing on providing a seamless customer experience, offering extensive after-sales support, and forging long-lasting relationships with their clientele.

Boating Industry's Economic Context

The Role of Boating in Outdoor Recreation

The boating industry is an important component of the outdoor recreation sector, which has experienced significant growth in recent years.

Boating activities, such as fishing, cruising, or watersports , are popular among both families and individuals looking to spend time outdoors.

This increased interest in boating has had a positive impact on the recreational boating market , which is estimated to be worth around $27.32 billion in 2024.

Some of the key factors driving this growth are:

• Convenience : With advancements in technology, modern boats now offer greater convenience and ease of use, making them more appealing to a larger audience.
• Accessibility : The popularity of boat-sharing services, such as Freedom Boat Club, has contributed to greater accessibility, thus boosting participation in boating activities.
• Health and Wellness : Outdoor recreation as a whole has gained attention due to its impact on physical and mental well-being, further encouraging people to engage in activities like boating.

Economic Impact on U.S. Businesses and Jobs

The boating industry has had a significant economic impact on the U.S. economy, contributing to the growth of various industries and creating job opportunities. Some key insights regarding the boating industry's impact include:

• Boat Manufacturers and Dealers : The demand for new and used boats has led to increased production and sales, benefiting both manufacturers and dealers.
• Marinas and Boat Storage Facilities : As more people participate in boating activities, marinas and boat storage facilities have experienced higher demand, directly contributing to the local economy.
• Maintenance and Repair Services : With more boats in use, the demand for maintenance and repairs has risen, creating jobs for skilled technicians and mechanics.
• Boating-Related Businesses : The boating industry has a trickle-down effect, generating business for other industries, including equipment and accessory manufacturers, insurance companies, and marine construction companies.

Marine Technology and Sustainability

In recent years, the marine industry has witnessed significant advancements in technology aimed at promoting sustainability and reducing the environmental impact of boating activities. Some key areas of focus include innovative new products, alternative marine fuels, and novel propulsion systems that are better for our planet.

Advances in Propulsion Systems

The marine industry is seeing a steady shift towards more environmentally friendly propulsion technology innovations .

Electric and hybrid propulsion systems have become increasingly popular as boaters demand cleaner alternatives to traditional fossil fuel-powered engines.

These systems not only reduce emissions but also offer potential cost savings and a quieter boating experience .

In addition to electric propulsion, hydrogen-fueled marine engines are gaining attention.

Hydrogen, when used as a marine fuel, emits only water vapor and heat - making it an attractive option for decarbonization in the marine industry. However, challenges such as fuel production, storage, and infrastructure need to be addressed for these systems to become mainstream.

Decarbonization in the Marine Industry

One of the primary obstacles in achieving a carbon-neutral marine sector is the lack of sustainable marine fuels to replace fossil fuels currently in use.

Recent developments in this domain involve the exploration and implementation of various renewable fuel options:

• Biofuels : Produced from biological sources such as plant and animal waste, biofuels offer a more sustainable alternative to fossil fuels.
• Synthetic fuels : Created by combining hydrogen with carbon dioxide captured from the atmosphere, synthetic fuels are carbon-neutral, but their adoption is limited due to high production costs.
• Renewable natural gas : Methane emitted from organic waste can be captured and used as a renewable fuel source, reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Another critical aspect of decarbonization in the marine industry is formulating and adhering to marine electric technology standards.

These standards help ensure that new products and technologies developed for sustainable marine applications conform to specific guidelines, promoting safety, efficiency, and compatibility across the sector.

Regional Market Considerations

North American Boat Market Overview

The North American boat market has shown resilience in recent years despite economic uncertainties. According to the National Marine Manufacturers Association (NMMA) , several industry trends have emerged as we enter 2024:

• New boat prices : Due to various factors, the prices of new boats are expected to remain high in 2023 and 2024, with an average increase of 2-5% in 2023.
• Waitlists : Popular brands and models may have waitlists extending into 2024, due to high demand and supply chain challenges.

The boat market's growth has been further driven by changes in consumers' preferences, with more people opting for outdoor and recreational activities. Brunswick Corp is one of the leading companies in the industry, highlighting the potential for market expansion in North America.

Market Nuances in States like Florida and New York

The boat market outlook varies across different states in North America, with Florida and New York having unique market characteristics.

• Florida: Known for its warm weather and coastline, Florida has long been a popular destination for boating enthusiasts. The state's market is heavily influenced by the demand for larger boats and yacht sales.
• New York: The boat market in New York is driven primarily by recreational boaters and fishing enthusiasts. The demand for smaller boats is more prevalent here compared to Florida.

Financing and Ownership Costs

When considering the purchase of a boat, it's essential to take into account not only the initial cost but also the ongoing expenses associated with ownership.

This includes factors such as financing and borrowing costs.

The boat market is currently experiencing a significant impact on financing options and borrowing costs.

While new boat prices increased by 10% on average in 2022 and are forecast to rise another 2-5% in 2023, consumers and dealers may face elevated borrowing costs for months to come.

This could make it more expensive for potential buyers to secure financing, affecting the overall demand for boats.

Moreover, the boat market is highly price sensitive. As a result, any increase in production costs or borrowing rates may cause potential buyers to reconsider their purchase decisions.

The sub-30-foot boat category is particularly affected, with most boats being financed and consumers being more cautious due to uncertainty in the market. This has created a buyer's market for smaller vessels.

When assessing boat ownership costs, it is crucial to consider the following expenses:

• Loan Payments : The monthly loan payments depend on the boat's price, the down payment, the interest rate, and the loan term.
• Insurance : The cost of insurance varies depending on the type, size, and value of the boat .
• Maintenance and Repairs : Routine maintenance and occasional repairs are essential to keep the boat in good condition.
• Storage : Boats need to be stored on land or in the water when not in use. Storage costs will depend on the location and the type of storage facility.
• Fuel : The cost of fuel will depend on the boat's size, engine type, and usage frequency.

Boat Shows and Industry Events

Effect of Boat Shows on Buyer Sentiment

Boat shows play a crucial role in the boating industry, particularly in shaping buyer sentiment and trends.

Major events like the Dubai International Boat Show showcase stunning superyachts and cutting-edge nautical innovations, which can directly influence consumer confidence.

These events allow potential buyers to explore various boat models, compare prices, and feel more informed before making a purchase.

In 2024, the continuing trend of high-profile boat shows is expected to maintain the enthusiasm of buyers and contribute to the healthy growth of the boating market.

For instance, the latest boat shows have displayed a variety of 2023 and some 2022 boats, indicating the strong demand and positive outlook in the industry.

Winter Boat Shows and Their Influence on Sales

Winter boat shows often hold a special importance in the industry, as they mark the beginning of a new boating season.

These events are designed to draw in consumers who are preparing for the year’s boating activities, while also introducing them to new products and innovations.

Despite the challenges faced by the industry in recent years due to supply chain disruptions and rising boat prices, boat price trends suggest that sales continue to remain strong.

Winter boat shows play a significant role in sustaining this momentum, as they entice potential buyers and maintain consumer engagement with the latest boating trends.

Visiting a winter boat show allows consumers to take advantage of purchase incentives, special offers, and expert advice.

Moreover, boat manufacturers utilize these events to showcase their newest models and innovations, capturing the attention of potential buyers.

Production and Builders' Perspectives

Challenges Facing Boat Builders

Boat builders in 2024 are confronting a variety of challenges.

Among the most significant are the lingering supply chain disruptions that have led to increased boat prices . This has strained builder resources and placed pressure on the bottom line.

Another issue faced by builders is the demand for more environmentally friendly, sustainable materials in their production processes, such as the use of fiberglass.

Additionally, current industry trends toward autonomous docking and advanced navigating features are further stretching the capabilities of many boat builders, as they must rapidly adapt to new technologies and respond to shifting market demand.

Production Adjustments and Innovations

Many boat builders are making strategic adjustments to their production process, such as investing in new technologies .

They are developing and incorporating advanced assistance systems, like Volvo Penta's Assisted Docking system and Avikus's Neuboat Dock, which utilize sensors, GPS, and algorithms to streamline docking efforts.

Boat manufacturers are also reconsidering their use of materials.

Fiberglass , for example, has long been a popular choice for boat construction, but the industry is shifting toward more environmentally friendly, sustainable alternatives.

These changes are vital to meet customer expectations and adapt to regulations, while also supporting more efficient production.

Market Projections and Future Trends

Predictions for New Powerboat Retail Sales

Experts predict that new boat prices will remain high in 2024 due to various factors affecting the industry.

New boat prices increased by an average of 10% in 2022 and are forecasted to rise by another 2-5% in 2023.

Popular brands and models may have waitlists extending into 2024, sustaining the high prices.

The small boat market , however, is experiencing a different trend.

Boats under 30 feet in size are currently in a buyer's market. This disparity is due to the majority of small boats being financed, with consumers being more cautious in response to media coverage of economic fluctuations.

Emerging Technologies and Market Disruptors

Innovations in the boating industry have the potential to reshape market trends in the coming years.

Some emerging technologies that could have an impact on the market include electric propulsion systems, renewable energy sources, and artificial intelligence for navigation and control.

Among these technologies, electric propulsion has been gaining significant traction in recent years.

With growing concerns over the environmental impact of traditional fuels, electric-powered boats are becoming more appealing to consumers.

As a result, major manufacturers are investing in the research and development of electric motors and batteries to offer more efficient and environmentally friendly options.

In addition to electric propulsion, renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power are also making their way into the boating industry.

Solar panels and wind turbines are being incorporated into the design of new boats, providing a supplemental power source while reducing the vessel's overall carbon footprint .

The integration of artificial intelligence and advanced navigation systems is another promising disruptor in the market.

Sophisticated software and sensor technologies allow for improved navigation and safety, while offering a more personalized experience for boaters.

By adopting advanced AI and automation, manufacturers can create a more accessible and enjoyable experience for all levels of boaters.

Quality of Life and Recreational Boating

Recreational boating has seen significant growth in recent years. Individuals increasingly prioritize leisure and outdoor activities to enhance their quality of life.

The recreational boating market was valued at USD 27.32 billion in 2024. It is projected to reach USD 36.78 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 5.10%.

As people's interest in outdoor recreational activities rises, so does their desire to spend time on the water. Boating offers various benefits to enhance one's quality of life, such as:

• Physical activity: Engaging in water sports or simply maneuvering a boat offers a form of exercise, promoting overall health and well-being.
• Mental health: Spending time on the water can help reduce stress and anxiety, providing a calming and tranquil environment to unwind.
• Family bonding: Boating offers opportunities for families to spend quality time together, strengthening relationships and creating memorable experiences.
• Connection with nature: Being on the water allows people to connect with nature, appreciate its beauty, and foster a sense of environmental responsibility.

Even though the boat sales have cooled down in 2024 due to the post COVID-era demand surge, recreational boating remains a popular choice for outdoor activities. Various factors have driven the industry's growth, including innovations in boat designs, eco-friendly alternatives, and increased accessibility for a wider range of individuals.

Despite the overall positive outlook, potential boat owners should carefully consider the costs and responsibilities associated with owning a boat. These may include maintenance, insurance, and storage fees, as well as the impact of fluctuating fuel prices and the potential for waitlists on popular brands and models extending into 2024.

Frequently Asked Questions

How has the 2024 economic climate influenced boat sales?

The current economic climate in 2024 has led to elevated borrowing costs, which in turn has a negative impact on the sales of boats in the US market. Boat stocks have struggled to start off the year, making it more challenging for consumers and dealers to afford financing options for boat purchases.

What predictions are experts making for boat market trends in the next year?

Experts predict that new boat prices will remain high in 2024, due to various contributing factors. New boat prices increased by 10% on average in 2022 and are forecast to rise another 2-5% in 2023. The high demand for boats and extended waitlists for popular brands and models are expected to sustain these price trends into 2024.

How might regional differences, such as those in California, affect the 2024 boat market?

Regional differences, such as the unique environmental regulations and state-specific economies, can impact the boat market in various ways. While this information isn't directly available for California, be aware that local market conditions might be different from the national trends as they can be influenced by the regional economy, local regulations, and consumer preferences.

What are the potential risks for boat buyers and sellers in a volatile market?

In a volatile boat market, buyers may face higher prices coupled with limited availability of desired models, as well as fluctuating interest rates on loans. Sellers, on the other hand, may need to compete with a smaller pool of potential buyers and may experience longer wait times for selling their boats, potentially at a lower price than anticipated.

Are current financial conditions presenting a buyers' market for boats?

Despite the challenging market conditions, the boat industry appears to be resilient in the face of inflation, falling stock prices, and recession fears. This suggests that demand for boats remains high, and it might not be a traditional buyers' market. However, certain segments of the market or specific regions might experience different market dynamics.

How is the boating industry adapting to the potential market changes in 2024?

The boating industry is continuously adapting to market changes and consumer demands.

Manufacturers and dealers are working to improve efficiency, address supply chain challenges, and develop innovative products to enhance the boating experience.

As new technologies and market trends emerge, the industry is expected to respond by offering new models and services to better cater to evolving customer needs.

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WHAT’S HAPPENING to sailboat prices? UPDATED SEPTEMBER 2023.

This article was originally written in 2020. much has changed therefore i’ve added an addendum..

We’ve all been watching it . It is clear that the resale values of used “production” fiberglass sailboats over a length of 20 feet or so are plummeting to new lows. Yet the prices of some smaller sailboats, if new or nearly new, are rising rapidly with inflation. Today you can buy five old 35-foot sailboats for the price of one new 15-to-21 footer. The question is… why?

BACKGROUND: The advent of fiberglass as a means of building sailboats began in the 1960s. Up until that time only fabulously wealthy individuals could afford a yacht. It took many months of work by highly skilled shipbuilders to build just the hull of a wooden sailboat, and this represented only a fraction of the fully completed yacht’ s cost . But fiberglass cut the time to build each part that could come out of a mold – the hull or the deck – to maybe one week for let’s say a 35-footer. And the work could be done by minimum-wage workers who could be trained in a few hours to lay up a fiberglass hull or deck and the other parts. The vastly diminished prices attracted hoards of new owners to the pastime of sailing. And whole new things called “marinas” were built to store them… up until the advent of fiberglass yachts were kept on moorings.

The fiberglass layup process emitted a noxious chemical—styrene—into the atmosphere and the lungs of anyone nearby. But money was being made by the factory owners, the workers had jobs, and fun was being had by a whole new class of boat owners. What has changed today?

Remembering that prices are nothing but the product of the law or supply and demand, here is why a few small, new sailboats have high prices that are going higher, and many larger, old sailboats have prices that are low and going lower.

1. ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS. When fiberglass yachts first started to be built it was possible to do what is called “open layup.” The byproducts of curing polyester and vinylester resins simply flashed off into the air and disappeared. Today open layup is only permitted in small shops who squeeze under the radar of OSHA, and rightly so. It is still legally possible to lay up small fiberglass parts in a small shop with no nearby dwellings. But the larger factories that spewed out tens of thousands of affordable yachts and tons of styrene into the air are all gone. Factories that created the thousands of cheap yachts that are now for sale on Craigslist for next to nothing are now fond memories. But thank you PEARSON, O’DAY, CAPE DORY, MORGAN, IRWIN, CATALINA, CAL, SHANNON, SQUADRON, HINCKLEY, MORRIS, ALDEN, FRIENDSHIP, CABO RICO, and countless others for bringing the joys of sailing to many.

2. DEPRECIATION. In the early days nobody knew how long a fiberglass sailboat might last. We were all used to cars, which lasted ten to fifteen years and depreciated accordingly. I talked to a finance salesman once at an Annapolis Sailboat Show. He told me that his agency’s assumption (needed in the case of a possible repossession) was that a financed sailboat depreciated from its new price, to scrap value—near zero—in a straight line over ten years. Thus most used sailboats for sale now are selling at or below their scrap value. Since fiberglass is difficult to separate from the other materials like the keel, which if of lead has some residual monetary value, most used sailboats today are worth what the lead is worth, minus the cost of separating if from the hull. There is really no way to recycle the fiberglass. This is why a short drive from your home you will see many old fiberglass “yachts” in peoples’ backyards with “for sale” signs on them, that will in truth never see the water again.

2. MAINTENANCE. All material objects require maintenance. A washing machine or dryer or refrigerator don’t require much, an automobile quite a lot, but a sailboat—being immersed in a corrosive element and exposed to the summer sun—requires more maintenance than virtually any other man-made object. While it is true that one could at enormous expense maintain a sailboat in close to new condition, doing so would cost, for a more than ten year old sailboat, more each year than the product is worth. It’s one thing to spend $20,000 a year to maintain a brand new 35-foot sailboat that cost $250,000 at the latest boat show years ago. It’s quite another to spend $20,000 a year to maintain a ten year old sailboat that you bought for $25,000 or less. And in actual fact newer things require less maintenance than older things. So let me re-phrase that sentence. It’s one thing to spend $10,000 a year on a brand new 35-foot sailboat that cost $250,000 at the latest boat show. It’s quite another to spend $25,000 a year on a ten year old sailboat worth $25,000.

3. COSTS VERSUS INFLATION. Fifty years ago a boatyard worker might have earned $4.00 per hour and a boatyard’s entirely reasonable fee might have been $10 per hour to account for its investment in land, buildings, insurance, and employment costs… Social Security and Medicare matching, paid holidays and vacations, sick days, etc. Today a boatyard worker earns $20 to $40 per hour and sailboat construction or maintenance costs over $100 per hour south of Boston, $75 per hour up here in Maine.

4. MAINTENANCE COST VERSUS SIZE. A brand new, smallish yacht requires very little maintenance. A coat of varnish on the brightwork, a yearly coat of bottom paint. And rent of a small patch of covered winter storage space. For a 15 to 18 footer, maybe $2500 per year. Of course if you are handy and have a garage there is no storage fee, and a can of varnish and bottom paint might cost you $200. The winter work list on a 35-footer can stretch into hundreds of manhours per season. In a city that might mean 100 manhours = $10,000. For an older 35-footer, whose work list expands with age, $10,000 to $25,000 per year. One way or the other you pay – very little for an old 35-footer at first, but a whole lot every year thereafter; A lot of money upfront for a new 15-footer, and virtually no money every year for a decade afterwards.

3. IN THE WATER FEES. A big sailboat will most likely be kept at a marina slip. $5000 per summer, maybe. A small sailboat can be kept on its trailer in the garage and launched when needed, or on a mooring or if you are lucky, or alongside your waterfront float, at little to no cost.

4. TIME REQUIRED TO GO FOR A SAIL. Big or small, when the whim overtakes you to go for an afternoon sail, the time to drive to the marina or yacht club, and perhaps take the launch out to your boat, is the same. But once you get aboard it takes a few seconds to hoist a small boat’s sails, and maybe a quarter to half an hour to get going in your 35-footer. This latter disincentive is one reason you see so many big white boats sitting unused in marinas on sunny summer weekends, and so many small sailboats actually out sailing.

5. SINGLEHANDING. Most larger boats can only be used if you can find crew. Most small boats can be easily singlehanded. The law of supply and demand means prices of boats that can be singlehanded will be higher than those that cannot be. (Small boat prices have morphed higher as large boat prices have plummeted).

6. CONSUMER PRODUCTS VERSUS WORK OF ART. Factory produced “yachts” were nothing more than very large consumer products. They call washers and dryers and refrigerators, “white goods”, and mass-produced sailboats were nothing more than very large and expensive white goods. They’re even – most of them – white in color. The few small sailboats available new on the market today are invariable hand-built works of art, produced by skilled artisans and often trimmed out in rare tropical hardwoods and even in some cases sporting masts and booms of varnished spruce or incredibly strong and light carbon fiber. Consumer goods always depreciate in value; works of art tend to appreciate in value.

7. ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS. Most people who enjoy outdoor sports these days are also supporters of an ever cleaner environment. Meaning they are against open layup fiberglass production with its degradation of the upper atmosphere and the lungs of its workers. They know that the byproducts of epoxy resin are less harmful than those of polyester resin. They know that wood is an environmentally superior construction material to glass and resin. They know that small toys (yachts are playthings… toys) are less environmentally destructive in their fabrication than are large toys.

8. MATERIAL COST INFLATION. For the decade 2010 to 2020 at least there had been little inflation, until the advent of Covid. But that has now abruptly changed. Our central bankers have responded to a pandemic by throwing care to the winds and “creating” lots of fake money. The result has been the same as it has always been. Double the supply of money, and after a year the price of everything will have doubled, and nobody will be any better off despite the good intentions. Our central bankers have “printed” approximately 30% more money, in an attempt to soften the blow of “shit happening”. But fact is, you can’t. In fact inflating the currency always creates a worse situation than maintaining a stable currency and letting things adjust automatically. So inflation is back.

9. RECYCLING UNWANTED “YACHTS”. It is difficult and costly to dump or recycle scrap yachts. In fact if we are to get rid of all the unwanted production “yachts” sitting in backyards new ways will have to be found to separate the fiberglass from the metals, and someone—presumably the last owner—will have to be forced to pay for it. Which is why so many old former yachts are “for sale” on Craigslist. Putting a price on the thing, although a cheap price, might fool someone into thinking it is an asset rather than a costly liability.  Someone will ultimately have to pay to have the thing hauled away and recycled.

10. CHARTERING. Time was when the only way to see some of the magical places in the world—the Caribbean, Seychelles, Tahiti, Croatia, Bora Bora—was to buy a yacht, learn celestial navigation, find a way to spend months or years without working (rob a bank or inherit lots of money), and fight down seasickness as you thrash your way day after day down to the tropics. You had no alternative than to pay a lot of money for a proper, big, offshore sailing yacht. Then someone invented chartering. You covered the miles by the thousands in a comfortable seat near the front of a marvelous aluminum contraption sipping cocktails at 580 miles per hour. Then took command of a larger and newer yacht than you could ever afford to own, and after a week of fun in the sun gave it back to the charter company to fix all the things that went wrong. What wrecked the idea of the personally owned large yacht more than any other factor, leaving only the more sensible day-sailing yachts viable for personal ownership, was chartering.

11. IS SAILING DEAD? The good news is, no it is not, far from it. It is true that many exciting and far cheaper sports have been invented that compete with sailing and appeal to the handsome young buck bursting with testosterone and his female counterpart. Windsurfing, ocean kayaking, kitesailing, standup paddleboarding, the list goes on and on. But the challenge of making a vehicle move silently and at no environmental cost through the water using nothing but the power of nature itself, even contrary to the very direction of the wind, will always be fascinating. And the closer you can get to the interface between land and sea—the waterfront—for which wealthy folks now must now pay millions of dollars—the better, and you do so at absolutely no fee.

12. DO ALL SAILING YACHTS DEPRECIATE? No, thanks to the law of supply and demand. Antique yachts appreciate reliably in price, because the supply decreases with time while the demand increases. Old wooden yachts disappear from the market, because many of them are not properly maintained. But the remaining ones gain in value. As an example an authentic Herreshoff 12½ sold new in 1937 for $750. I just sold my 83 years old (it, not me) Herreshoff for $29,500…  today’s average selling price (not asking price) for an authentic 12½ in good condition. No investment I ever made… stocks, bonds, real estate, annuities.. has come close to appreciating so much in value.

THE EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE:

The few fiberglass yachts that were built in low volume, custom production to exceptionally high standards, retain good value if properly maintained. These are the Morris Yachts, Hinckleys, Aldens, Cambrias, and many of the custom designed and built yachts from the famous yards, usually of welded aluminum. These yachts cost, when built, at least triple the cost of a Morgan, Catalina, or Irwin. But the payback is that today they have retained ten times the value of the high volume nautical “white goods”and that value is going up. not down, thanks to inflation..

13. WHAT MAKES SENSE TO OWN TODAY? First of all, forget the money. Own what you think will most enhance your leisure life. Although you might always keep in the background the fact that retention of value is not at all a bad thing. Own a yacht that you will actually use, and enjoy its use. If there is a racing class that is popular where you like to sail, and you enjoy racing, your choice is easy. There is safety in numbers— the simple fact that a race committee raises a flag for that class every Saturday vastly reduces its rate of depreciation. Realize that yachts that were built to high standards at multiples of the “production yacht” price retain a high proportion of their original cost. Examples are the Morris Yachts, Aldens, Hinckleys, Alerion Express 2 8 s, Center Harbor 25s and my own recent designs the Pisces 21, York 18 and Levant 15, whose superiority and value for money are reflected in the long waiting times currently required to achieve delivery or short times on the brokerage market. Likewise the Doughdish and Cape Cod Shipbuilding 12½s and Marshall catboats if ultra-shoal draft is an issue for you, and authentic Herreshoff Manufacturing Company 12½s and Beetlecats if you can afford the formidable yearly costs of maintaining a wooden boat. Seek out the small yachts that are easily gotten going and put away, inexpensive to maintain, and can get you close to that million-dollar shoreline. Or if your dream is to head offshore, jump on any Morris or Hinckley or Alden that pops up on the brokerage market – they tend to be snatched up in a week.

SEPTEMBER 2023 UPDATE.

Interesting to re-read this three years later. Some corrections are needed!

When originally written, inflation in the general economy was hovering about 1.5% year on year. Inflation in the yacht building field was much higher- around 5%.

For various reasons inflation has reared its ugly head with a vengeance. This has caused a revision to my above comments to be necessary.

Much that has been said above still applies, to MASS-PRODUCTION yachts. They are still consumer products at the end of their usable life and therefore of little to no value.

However, it does not apply to the few very high quality designs built to last at least 100 years by Tom Morris and a few other custom-quality, low volume builders.

It has come to my attention over the last three years that virtually none of my designs remain on the brokerage market. In 2020 one would see at least 10 Chuck Paine designs on YachtWorld and a few more on other brokerage sites. When one pops up today it is immediately bought, at higher prices than were the case in 2020. It is clear to me that people who wish to retain their savings are buying good quality used yachts as hedges against inflation, not just for recreational use.

There is also “scarcity value” to anything that is both intrinsically desirable, and rare. The alternative to buying, for instance, a 30- year old used Frances 26 on the brokerage market for between $70,000 and $30,000 depending upon its condition, is to build a new one at today’s prices, which would cost $550.000. At that latter figure climbs, the prices for good condition used models does also.

I believe that the recovery in used yacht prices is forced by the current high level of inflation. Our government has chosen as governments sadly often do, to devalue the currency (inflate). So everything- including used yachts- is being bought with a new, lower value currency.  And remember- yacht construction inflation is between two and three times general inflation and has been for many years.  So while the general inflation level has jumped from 1.5% to 6 to 8%,  yacht inflation has jumped from 5% to something more like 20% yearly.  For at least as long as central bankers lack the spine to bring inflation under control, expect used Chuck Paine designed yacht prices (and equivalent quality yachts from other designers) to climb at significant rates.

I hope this is helpful.

Chuck Paine

Boat Price Trends

• On August 15, 2023
• No Comments

The boating industry saw unprecedented growth during the COVID-19 pandemic as people sought outdoor recreational activities. This led to surging demand and rising prices for new and used boats from 2020-2022. As we move into 2023, many boat buyers wonder – will boat prices go down in 2023 or continue to rise?

Factors Impacting Boat Prices

Our forecast for 2023-2024, new boat price trends, used boat price trends, the outlook for 2024 and beyond, our final thoughts.

Several key factors will determine when or if the boat market will crash or remain high in 2023 and 2024:

• Supply Chain Issues  – Shortages of materials like fiberglass along with labor shortages have constrained production. As supply chain problems persist, boat prices will stay elevated.
• High Inflation  – With inflation at 40-year highs, the rising costs of materials, labor, transport will keep upward pressure on boat prices.
• Interest Rates  – Higher interest rates make financing more expensive, potentially dampening demand and prices.
• Consumer Demand  – Demand soared during COVID but may moderate with economic uncertainty. Still, new boat buyers entering the market could sustain demand.
• Price of Oil  – As a key component in fiberglass, rising oil prices directly impact boat production costs and prices.

Further reading that’s worth your time: The Best Place To Buy A Used Boat .

Due to the above factors, most industry experts predict new boat prices will remain high rather than decrease in 2023 and 2024. Some key new boat price trends:

• New boat prices increased 10% on average in 2022 and are forecast to rise another 2-5% in 2023.
• Popular brands and models may have waitlists extending into 2024, sustaining high prices.
• As supply chain issues ease, price growth may moderate but overall remain elevated over pre-pandemic levels.

Used boat prices are also expected to remain relatively high in 2023 and potentially 2024:

• Limited inventory has driven intense demand in the used boat market since 2020.
• This shortage of used boat inventory will persist, creating upward price pressure.
• Well-maintained used boats can sell for 50-80% of their original retail price depending on age.
• For context, a 5 year old 25-foot center console that originally sold for $100K can fetch $60-80K on the used market.

In 2024 and beyond, broader economic conditions will determine if boat prices moderate. But key factors suggest prices will remain strong:

• Pent-up demand from the pandemic has introduced many new buyers to boating who will remain in the market.
• Florida’s continuously growing population increases local demand for boats.
• Boating interest continues to grow nationally, bringing new entrants.

Barring an economic downturn, which is still in the forecast for many economists, boat prices are likely to plateau at elevated levels rather than return to pre-pandemic pricing. Savvy buyers should watch for potential sales and incentives during boat shows and end-of-season clearances to get the best deals.

But overall, boat prices will remain high compared to historical levels for the remainder of 2023.

You might also be interested in reading:

The Top 3 Boat History Report Websites Reviewed

Yacht vs Catamaran: Which Boat is Right for You?

The Top 10 Best Boat Brands

Best Place to Buy a Boat

Parts of A Boat Explained

Steve Momot

Steve is an accomplished professional photographer and marketer who specializes in the Fishing, Yacht, and Boating industry. With a strong presence as an influencer and marketing expert in the Marine Industry, he has made a significant impact in the field. Additionally, Steve is the original creator and co-founder of Sportfishtrader. Prior to his career as a marine photographer, he gained extensive experience as a licensed boat and car dealer in South Florida.

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U.S. boat sales rose during Covid. Now rates are hurting them.

U.S. boat sales – which soared during the pandemic – are estimated to reach a decade low this year, another victim of higher interest rates.

Americans who were cooped up in their homes and had money to burn spent it in a boat-buying spree in 2020 and 2021.

But after an extended period of rampant inflation and burdensome borrowing costs, sales have sunk back to the lowest level since 2013, and salespeople who could ink six-figure deals by barely lifting a finger are having to cajole customers again.

Michael Prince Jr., who sells $70,000 pontoons and fishing boats from metro Atlanta’s Lake Lanier area, still has a few 2023 models on his lot.

Over the last couple of years, he would’ve sold off his current-year models by now.

“I don’t think interest rates have killed this industry yet, but if they go up more, they could,” said Prince, managing partner of boat dealer Grass Shack.

Still, he remains upbeat. “It’s just coming off such a high that it feels like an incredible downturn.”

Like cars and furniture, boat sales exploded early in the pandemic as consumers capitalized on stimulus payments and accumulated savings to cash in on big-ticket items.

More than 1.4 million new and used powerboats were sold in 2021 – up 16% from 2019 – following several years of low, single-digit growth, according to the National Marine Manufacturers Association.

And the money flowed in. At OneWater Marine Inc., which runs boat dealerships across the U.S., operating income almost doubled to $153 million in its 2021 fiscal year.

Then it climbed another 54% in fiscal 2022.

OneWater sells boats averaging $200,000 – ranging from a 2020 Bayliner for $30,000 all the way up to a five-cabin superyacht for over $14 million – but deals came easy.

“COVID came, inventories tightened up and we turned into Walmart greeters who could write up a sales form,” Chief Executive Officer Austin Singleton said. “You didn’t have to sell a boat. You were an order taker.”

The downturn, however, has been almost as swift.

This year, the industry likely will sell 269,000 new powerboats and around 900,000 used ones, the lowest level for preowned vessels in NMMA data back to 2011.

That’s because people opted for used boats during the pandemic when production of new ones struggled to keep pace with demand, so supply is still tight, the industry group said.

Sales are also depressed this year because consumers bought so many boats during the pandemic when they were flush with cash, which has reduced demand now for new and used boats alike.

While the U.S. labor market is still strong by many measures, it’s been weakening more notably recently, and consumer sentiment – and spending – are both taking a hit.

The Federal Reserve may be done hiking interest rates, but officials have signaled that borrowing costs will stay elevated for some time to ensure they quash inflation.

Sales slump

Higher rates were a factor for lower sales at boat manufacturers like Brunswick Corp. and Malibu Boats Inc. in their latest quarter.

It was also an issue for Robalo fishing boat manufacturer Marine Products Corp. – which saw sales slump 22% – citing a moderation in demand after the COVID surge as well as a hit to production from Hurricane Idalia, which struck the southeast U.S. in August.

Loan rates have roughly doubled since early 2020 to around 9% today, taking the typical monthly payment on a 20-foot fiberglass boat, motor and trailer package from around $400 to about $700, according to a September presentation by Brunswick.

Some of that is also due to higher prices, the firm said.

And manufacturers are trimming headcount.

Orlando, Florida-based Correct Craft makes ski and fishing boats, with revenue around $1 billion. Lately, it’s had to cut its 2,400-person workforce by about 200, mostly through attrition.

Chief Executive Officer Bill Yeargin said he’s been stumped by the downturn.

“This is the first time there’s been a significant disconnect between the economy and the boating industry. They tend to follow pretty closely,” Yeargin said. “The economy has continued to be pretty strong, but the boating industry’s been down a fair bit for several months.”

Several economists see consumer spending slowing into the end of this year coming off of a breakneck pace in the third quarter.

While many expect the economy to dodge a recession, Americans are still pulling back on other large and luxury purchases, judging by results from retailers Home Depot Inc. and Whirlpool Corp., as well as prices of Rolex and Patek Philippe watches.

Yeargin chalks up the boating slump to rates, as well as demand fading from pandemic highs. He remains upbeat, nonetheless.

“I am seeing a leveling off,” Yeargin said. “I think we’ve found the new normal.”

Untapped home equity offers financial flexibility

The cost of borrowing has risen sharply in recent years, so when it comes to tackling a big expense, it’s important to know about the options.

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'somebody forgot to tell the boat industry' about inflation, the bear market, and recession fears.

There could be a lot more skippers out on the open water this summer despite conditions on dry land being one of red-hot inflation, plunging stock prices , and rampant recession fears .

"While big-ticket consumer discretionary has been left behind by investors, somebody forgot to tell the boat industry," Citi analyst James Hardiman wrote in a new note to clients. "Our channel checks of more than 30 North American boat dealers suggest an acceleration in sales and other leading indicators as weather improved during the month of May."

Hardiman's dealer contacts report sales increasing by mid to high-single digit percentage rates over the past month compared to 2019 despite "significantly" low levels of inventory.

"While dealers share some concern about the health of the economy and consumer, thus far the only near-term headwinds to demand have been weather and product availability and sales have been strong when either have improved," Hardiman said. "Dealers continue to clamor for more inventory and believe that sales would be higher if they had it, as has been the case for the better part of the past two years."

Go figure, especially as companies such as Target and Walmart warn about a consumer spending slowdown and stocks are in a bear market as measured by the S&P 500 .

And as for commoners out there, essentials such as gas , groceries , and housing are among primary concerns — not registering a new $1,000,000 boat.

"By segment, demand remains hot for larger, higher-priced boats, particularly outboard models," Hardiman noted. "Unfortunately, these are also the hardest to come by (notably fiberglass outboard boats) and most popular Sea Ray and Boston Whaler models are sold out well into 2023 and beyond."

The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday in a bid to slow extreme levels of inflation. By its own admission, the Fed is moving into a "moderately restrictive" era of policy that could weigh on the health of the job market at time when many households are increasingly struggling.

"Recession odds always rise with higher oil prices," Jefferies warned in a new note. "If the Federal Reserve is intent on suffocating inflation, then the chances of a monetary overkill — the worst case scenario for equities — will be played out in credit markets."

Apparently these real word concerns haven't made it those sipping mimosas on the sun deck.   We suspect they will very soon.

Brian Sozzi is an editor-at-large and anchor at Yahoo Finance . Follow Sozzi on Twitter @BrianSozzi and on LinkedIn .

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Will Boat Prices Go Down in 2023? – Best Time to Buy a Boat

Written by J. Harvey / Fact checked by S. Numbers

The question, “Will boat prices go down in 2023?” is a considerably hot topic on numerous boating platforms. Based on boating industry trends in the past two years and the continuous rise of the boating market, the short answer is that boat prices are highly unlikely to go down in 2023 due to pandemic-caused supply chain disruptions and the continuing popularity of boating in general. Read on to know the exact explanation for this trend.

Table of Contents

What’s Behind The Rise In Boat Prices And Is It Likely To Continue Or Plateau

Unsurprisingly, used boats are on high demand, some helpful tips to keep in mind to make the most out of your money.

Most of it hinges on supply and demand as well as the manufacturing challenges being faced by the boating industry at large. In 2021 alone, roughly a year since the pandemic hit, the boating industry was already booming, and experts are expecting it to carry on for a long time due to the following reasons:

• Shortages in workers and materials to construct boats as a result of the spike in demand naturally resulted in the marked bump in prices.
• Essential boat materials like steel and aluminum are at an all-time high due to COVID supply-chain disruptions.
• The 2022 boating industry forecast points toward a hefty 2% rise in boating sales.
• It doesn’t help that marketers are continuing to innovate the way they draw new people into boating, usually through subscriptions and membership in boat clubs.
• Boat buying is mostly a word-of-mouth business, wherein almost any boat owner has a potential new prospect in his or her immediate circle.
• As long as people have disposable income, the demand for boats will stay hot. So to those asking, “When will the boat market crash?” It will most likely only come along with a major recession.

That being said, some experts are expecting the rise in prices to slow down now that the world is slowly opening up. They’re banking on the supply finally catching up with the demand as early as 2023, but even so, nothing’s ever really set in stone. Moreover, the prices may only plateau for a few years then increase again.

And many owners are also finding them a bit expensive. On average, a 20-foot boat can still cost as much as $15,000, after all. Comparing used boat prices in 2023 to prices for new vessels, though, you can still save well over 50% of the usual prices of the latter.

In fact, one of the most promising boating industry trends in 2023 is the rise of the used boat market. This is mostly dictated by myriad factors such as boat owners who rode the pandemic bandwagon and bought boats but are looking to sell them now with the roads slowly reopening.

There’s also a noticeable rise in demand for used boats, and for people looking to make a profit from their past vessels, there’s no better time than now to strike a terrific deal. We also have the pandemic to blame for the shortage of new boats, thereby, forcing most consumers to simply buy and refurbish used vessels.

• The best time to buy a boat is generally in September or October when many manufacturers offer substantial price cuts.
• If you’ll settle for nothing less than new boats, check out sites like this one, which shares a list of new boat prices 2022 along with noteworthy offerings you can get for a bargain.
• Regularly attend boat shows. Before you do, though, make sure you already have a set budget and stick to it.
• Be mindful of any additional costs you may have to pay once you buy a new or used boat . You may have to set aside an emergency fund if you don’t prefer marine insurance.

Consider watching this video to get more helpful boat buying tips:

Will boat prices go down in 2023? Are boat prices going to come down any time soon? Based on the facts stated here, to say yes is to shoot for the moon. Forecasts still show a continuous rise in demand and sales for this year. However, you can always opt for used boats and rely on the cost-saving tips we shared here to still manage well within your budget.

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Statistics & Research

Annual U.S. sales of boats, marine products and services are estimated to total $59.3 billion in 2022.

Retail unit sales of new powerboats are estimated to have held steady in 2019 at approximately 280,000 units, the second highest total since 2007.

Boaters across the country are finding ways to spend time on the water. See the impact that boating has on your state's economy. 

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Browse data / research categories.

2021 sailboat sales trends report now available

The National Marine Manufacturers Association (NMMA) Sailboat Sales Trends section of the 2021 U.S. Recreational Boating Statistical Abstract is now available. The data show retail unit sales of sailboats increased 20% compared to 2020.

Other key insights from the report include:

• Sailboats accounted for $126.1 million in sales in 2021.
• Exports of sailboat units from the U.S. declined 9.2%, whereas sailboat imports increased 43.4%.

Here’s the estimated release schedule for the remaining sections of the 2021 Abstract:

• Boat and Engine Exports & Imports
• Total Industry Sales by Category & State
• Powerboat Sales Trends
• Cruiser, Watersport, Fishing Boat & Trailer Sales Trends
• Pre-Owned Boat Market
• Full Abstract digital copy

The 2021 boat registration section is a standalone report and will be available in Q4 2022. For more information, visit www.nmma.org .

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IBEX 2024 coming into focus

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Advanced Textiles Association

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• Nov 2, 2022

2023 Forecast- When is the Best Time to Buy a Boat?

An update on today's complex boating industry

The immediate future of the boating industry in North America is not easy to predict. However, past performances and present economics can give us some reasonably accurate predictions. The inflation that we have witnessed over the past 20 months is a direct result of excess money chasing a limited supply of goods and services. Recent efforts to put on the economic brakes by raising interest rates, has left both the industry and boaters themselves in rough seas. In an annual report, Frank Hugelmeyer, president of the North American Marine Manufactures Association recently said: "While overall new powerboat sales decreased 11 percent compared to January through July in pre-pandemic 2019, several categories continue to outpace pre-pandemic YTD sales levels."

Does this mean that 2023 will be a good year to buy a new boat ? Perhaps understanding some of the current data on boaters and trends will help us understand the psyche of the marine business and thereby help us answer that question. Reports this month from Coast Guard and NMMA reveal some interesting data:

Wholesale shipments of new powerboats through July 2022 decreased 6% over the previous year.

Used boat sales are outpacing new boat sales by 2-to-1.

Over 400,000 first-time boat buyers entered the market in 2021.

An estimated 110 million North Americans go boating each year.

61% of boaters have an annual household income of less than $75,000.

Boaters come from all ages, walks of life, and areas of the country.

95% of boats sold in North America are American made.

95% of boats in the U.S. are less than 26 feet and trailerable.

Comparing unit to dollar sales for 2021 tells us prices were up considerably. This is a direct result of increased demand due to the 6% reduction in new wholesale powerboat shipments, that resulted from production material shortages.

Wholesale shipments of outboard engines increased 6 percent year over year. In addition to the outboards sold with new boats, this increase would be due to a combination of repowering existing boats and powering new units with multiple engines.

Most recreational boaters that I talk to are confused as to when and where they should look for a new boat. Over the past three years, we have seen some sharp increases in most new boat prices. The major contributing factor to this trend has been a reduction in new boats available, due to shipping delays and shortages of boat construction materials. While there are still some delays in the materials supply chain, it seems that much of this problem has been resolved. Boat buyers today and over the next two years are more concerned with the overall economic effects of inflation in North America and the growing possibility of a recession. For me to explain how I believe this will affect boat sales, I will describe what will happen and when. We have all been impacted by the recent reduction in our purchasing power, which is the definition of "inflation". We have to pay higher prices for the same product. A good example is having to pay $15 for a haircut that used to cost $10, back when you had more hair. People's reaction to this inflation, is to get a haircut less frequently. As business drops, one of the barbers gets laid off. If you are the barber that got laid off, or any other worker in the same situation, your reduced household income will make it a difficult time to purchase a high ticket recreational item, such as a boat. This leads to a spiraling decline in economic activity, which is the definition of "recession".

To predict how a recession will affect the boating industry, it is important to first understand that recessions do not affect all purchases the same way. Buying a boat is not like buying restaurant meals. You can pass on going out to a restaurant to eat and still have food by eating at home, but you can't go boating without a boat. And whether you boat for sport, cruising or fishing, most boaters find it addictive. I mean, you've spent all those years learning 'port' from 'starboard' and you want to put those skills to good use.

Answering the question, "Will next year be a good year to buy a boat?', I will first look at the used boat market . Well, that barber that lost his job and all of his buddies that a recession has placed in the same situation, may not be able to afford the upkeep of their boat. More than likely, many people finding themselves in this situation will find it a good time to sell. So the recession will increase the availability of used boats. With more boats on the used market, prices will have to be competitive. Bottom line -- if you have some discretionary savings and have been thinking of buying a boat with some hours on it, next year should present a strong opportunity.

So what can we predict about new boat sales next year? If you consider that manufacturers were handicapped last year by material supply shortages, Covid-19, and growing inflation, it is understandable that builders will be anxious to get their production numbers back to pre-pandemic levels to prevent factory shut downs, and at the same time, produce enough boats to increase their market share. To do this, they will need to offer value pricing packages to their dealers and, at the same time, encourage their dealers to offer some tantalizing deals to their retail customers. Boats on a "floor plan" will also provide some great buy opportunities. These are boats that the manufacturer has sold to dealers with financing provided for a specified time. Dealers with financed boats in their inventory will obviously want to sell them before their financing term expires and they are required to pay for them. This pressure for dealers to sell will ensure that dealers will offer good pricing to their prospective customers.

The trick for you to catching such a new boat deal will be to watch for them. There are lots of great resources that can help you on your new boat search. Tell your local dealer what type of boat you are considering and pay close attention to special offers and advertisements. A smart first step in buying any boat is to establish your own personal budget based upon your family's economic situation. A reduced budget may require passing on your desire for a "Supremo 30" with quad outboards, but if you watch closely for a boat deal that meets your budget, you should be able to find a fair price on a new boat that truly satisfies you. Whether you are interested in new or used, there will be some good deals in 2023 -- as long as you look for them. #tips

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I don't know about the best time to buy, but any year is good for selling, especially since my boat has already sailed for me, so I can sell with peace of mind. Moreover, using the prompts for amazon sellers , I will be able to sell it much faster and buy a new one in 2024, so I can upgrade for the next six or seven years. What else can I add is that you have a very cool blog, interesting topics for reflection, not just boats, but real pressing and lively topics, for which you have great respect.

People who want to boat but cannot afford to buy one will end up renting. Its actually way less expensive to rent than own. I read a report from the NMMA that boat sales are down 18% from a year ago and dealers are finally getting stock boats to sell as manufactures get caught up. Some of the dealers I spoke with in the PNW are using the early 2023 boat shows as a gauge on where the boating market is headed and will start cancelling build slots if things do not go well. I have been closely monitoring Boat Trader, Yacht world and others to monitor inventory levels. Boat Trader has over 99,000 boats listed for sale up fro…

Looking at available boats today, both new and used, it still feels like sellers are not in touch with reality. It will take another 6 or so months for people to realize the market has shifted and boats won’t fetch what they once did. That’s a bubble I’m hoping will pop in a big way.

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Boating Boom Leads To More Accidents And Fatalities

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Numbers don't lie. Coast Guard statistics reveal that accidents reached record levels during the pandemic. We look into the factors behind this deadly trend.

Four were rescued from this sinking 19-foot boat in Tampa Bay. (Photo: U.S. Coast Guard)

If you feel like you've been hearing about more boating mishaps on your local waters, it's not just regional. It's nationwide. "From July through August of 2020, it was the highest number of accidents for the 23 years that we have on record," reports Verne Gifford, the chief of Boating Safety at U.S. Coast Guard Headquarters, who oversees the Coast Guard's annual report on recreational boating accidents . From 2019 to 2020, the total number of boating accidents increased by 26.3%, while deaths increased by 25.1%.

The number of deaths in 2021 remained above 2019 (prepandemic) levels. The 2021 annual report released in late June showed that there were 658 deaths, a 7% increase from 2019 [613 deaths], but a 14% decrease from 2020 [767 deaths].

A 29-foot vessel collided with a 30-foot vessel 13 miles east of Fort Pierce, Florida. Salvage crews were called to separate the vessels. (Photo: U.S. Coast Guard)

What was it that made 2020 a boating season unlike any other? Was it just that there were more boaters on the water? Were these less experienced boaters? Most importantly, what can be done to reduce the number of accidents?

The Buying Surge

A primary factor behind the accident uptick correlates with a significant increase in boating activity, or what Gifford refers to as "exposure hours." Simply put, more people boating, and more frequently, leads to greater odds of a collision. With limited options during the pandemic, Americans headed to rivers, lakes, and saltwater. In those early days, boating offered the best socially distanced way to relax, make memories, and connect with nature.

Data from Info-Link Technologies, a market-research firm that tracks boat ownership statistics in the U.S., reveals sales of new fiberglass and aluminum powerboats increased by 13% in 2020, levels the recreational boating industry hadn't seen since before the Great Recession following the 2008 stock market crash. And sales remained strong in 2021, softening only slightly, which manufacturers attributed to supply chain constraints. Early indications are the two-year pandemic-fueled boating boom is waning in 2022, but the backlog remains, and manufacturers say they can't build boats fast enough.

The number of boating accidents and deaths rose in 2020, commensurate with the increase in first-time boat buyers. (Source: NMMA)

"We had record boat sales everywhere," Matt Gruhn, president of the Marine Retailers Association of the Americas (MRAA), says of the 2020 season. "Dealers sold everything they could get their hands on. Their showrooms were literally empty at times."

Another indicator that boating activity was picking up: BoatUS saw a 16% increase in memberships in both 2020 and 2021. The BoatUS Foundation also saw a jump in the number of students accessing its free online Boating Safety Course during that period. "We had a nearly 65% increase in total students accessing the course over 2019," says Amanda Perez, director of education, "more than 110,000 additional students than the year before."

More Inexperienced Boaters

It's long been understood that boating education plays a vital role in safety. In 77% of the accident cases involving a fatality recorded by the Coast Guard in 2020, the boat operator had no boating instruction or training. "We feel there's data that shows more new boat buyers and more inexperienced boaters during that period," says Gifford. "So we think that contributed to the fact that people were more likely to have accidents that resulted in damage, injuries, and, unfortunately, fatalities."

Nine were rescued in the U.S. Virgin Islands after the skipper reported running out of fuel. (Photo: U.S. Coast Guard)

According to Info-Link Technologies, the percentage of powerboats purchased by first-time buyers jumped to 35% in 2020, dramatically reversing what had been a 10-year declining trend. Dealers noticed there were suddenly a lot of new boaters coming into their stores. Stories about customers who never boated before coming in to buy new boats 30 feet and larger is not unusual, Gruhn says. "I had a dealer tell me he'd had a customer come in who not only had never owned a boat, he'd never been in a boat," Gruhn says. "That's the type of stuff we were hearing about."

Captain Timothy Dunleavy of the New Hampshire State Police Marine Patrol saw plenty of evidence of new boaters on the water. "We saw an explosion in the number of people who were looking to become certified boaters," says Dunleavy. "Our law has been in effect since 2001, so at this point in New Hampshire, we're just certifying people who are new to boating or coming of age to be able to operate. Typical numbers run from 6,000 to 8,000 a year. We saw over 30,000."

Two people were stranded on an island off Houston after their 21-foot flat-bottom boat struck a rock. (Photo: U.S. Coast Guard)

Dunleavy also noticed a change in the interactions that officers were having with people on the water. "We see inexperienced operators getting in trouble, not being as familiar with the hazards on our lakes ... violating routine navigation laws ... people were lost, didn't know where they were, needed directions. Those are all signs of an inexperienced boater," says Dunleavy.

Same-Old Safety Measures

Regardless of statistics, the experts we interviewed stressed the keys to staying safe on the water remain the same:

• Take boating education courses. The more the better.
• Wear a life jacket, and the skipper should wear an engine cutoff switch.
• Avoid distracted driving.
• Do not boat under the influence.
• Read and know the rules for the waters in which you're boating.

Record Rental Accidents

Many would-be boat owners' hopes were dashed when they got to the dealership. A combination of demand and restricted supply chains meant that in some cases there was nothing left to buy. For many, the easiest option was to rent.

While overall boating deaths increased by 25% in 2020 to 767, there was a 98% increase in deaths involving rental vessels. And in 2021, that number jumped another 15% percent. This is likely due to the increasing popularity of boat rental companies and services.

Taking boating education courses, such as the BoatUS Foundation's free online Boating Safety Course, is one way to decrease accidents and deaths on the water. (Photo: BoatUS Foundation)

"We've never had such a significant jump," says Gifford. The Coast Guard believes that both the increased activity on rental vessels and less experienced boaters using rental vessels played a role in the spike, Gifford says, adding, "We do know that education matters."

For perspective, rentals have grown in recent years along with the owner rental model pioneered by Airbnb. But the 2020 spike stands as an outlier compared to previous rental deaths of 41 (2019), 52 (2018), 49 (2017), and 67 (2016).

Become A Better Boater

Whether you're new to boating or looking to expand your skills, our BoatUS Foundation offers courses and online resources for safe and clean boating:

• Free boating safety course. The BoatUS Foundation offers the only free online boating safety course developed specifically for your state. They're recognized by the Coast Guard and approved by the National Association of State Boating Law Administrators (NASBLA) and 36 states. Go to BoatUS.org/Free and click on your state to get started.
• Advanced courses. Want to brush up or learn a new skill? Our BoatUS Foundation offers 16 courses on various topics, including marine radios, navigation, weather, hurricane prep, sailing, and more. Prices range from free to $40 each.
• In-person learning. If you'd prefer to learn in-person, the BoatUS Foundation has a database of U.S. Coast Guard Auxiliary, United States Power Squadrons, and privately offered courses from around the country. Visit BoatUS.org/Courseline and type in your zip code to find courses in your area.
• Hands-on on-water training. Our BoatUS Foundation offers On-Water Training through partners around the country. The three-hour courses range from $179 to $249 depending on location, are taught by Coast Guard-licensed captains, and have three to four students so everyone gets ample time at the helm. Enter your zip code at BoatUS.org/On-Water to find training near you.

Looking Ahead

In preparation for 2022, Dunleavy says his team analyzed where demands have been highest over the last couple of years to "focus our manpower on those lakes or areas of lakes, on the large ones where the boaters need us."

They're also continuing to work to engage boaters through social media and outreach campaigns and increasing the number of boating courses offered in the New Hampshire State Police Marine Patrol's jurisdiction.

Gruhn anticipated another busy season. "People have fallen in love with being on the water again," he said. "They've turned to the water in record numbers, and we expect that to continue, particularly in a world where there's a lot of stressors. There's no better escape than being on the water with your family and friends."

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Fiona McGlynn

Contributing Editor, BoatUS Magazine

BoatUS Magazine contributing editor Fiona McGlynn and her husband sailed their 35-footer trans-Pacific for two years. Now living north of 59, she’s part of their local search and rescue team and edits WaterborneMag.com, a millennial boating website.

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Boat crash in Sarasota results in multiple injures, fatality

T he Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC) is investigating a boating incident that led to a single passenger fatality and multiple injuries after a crash in the intercoastal waterway Friday evening just before 7 p.m.

An FWC spokesperson confirmed via email that the crash happened in Sarasota Bay near the Manatee County side of Longboat Key.

"A 31-foot vessel was traveling north along the intercoastal waterway with 7 individuals on board when it struck a channel marker.  Two of the individuals on board the vessel were transported to the hospital. Sadly, one of the individuals was declared deceased as a result of the incident," said FWC spokeswoman Hailee Seely in an email Monday.

Longboat Police Department, Manatee County Fire Rescue, and the United States Coast Guard all responded to the scene of the single vessel incident, according to Longboat Police.

The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission expressed sympathies to the family and friends of the victim Monday.

The investigation, which is being conducted by the commission, is ongoing.

This article originally appeared on Sarasota Herald-Tribune: Boat crash in Sarasota results in multiple injures, fatality

'Black Swan' investor sees the S&P 500 jumping another 12% — followed by the worst crash since 1929

• The boss of a "Black Swan" fund expects the S&P 500 to jump another 12% to a record 6,000 points.
• But Universa Investments' Mark Spitznagel expects the worst market crash in a century to follow.
• Spitznagel told BI that investor euphoria will peak then asset bubbles will burst painfully.

A "Black Swan" investor expects the S&P 500 to climb another 12% and breach 6,000 points for the first time — and then suffer its worst crash since the Great Depression.

Mark Spitznagel, the founder and chief of Universa Investments, told Business Insider in an email:

"I've been saying this for a year and a half because people got 2022 so incredibly wrong (we're not in the 70s!). The Fed recklessly popped the greatest credit bubble in human history and now as people realize that the Fed needs to about-face, they're going to get increasingly juked the other way in a face-ripping rally. At the point of euphoria — which is coming — the high will be in and the market will crash worse than the global financial crisis."

He added: "What matters more than my views on this are how Universa's clients are positioned for it — for both a face-ripping rally and for the worst crash since 1929."

Universa specializes in protecting portfolios against extreme and unpredictable "tail risks" in markets. The firm's scientific advisor is Nassim Taleb , the author of "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable."

The S&P has soared by nearly 30% from its October lows to trade at record highs of more than 5,300 points. Investors have piled into stocks like Nvidia — up over 150% since the start of this year — as they wager Big Tech will be big winners from the artificial intelligence boom.

Stocks have also benefited from interest-rate cuts and unprecedented amounts of government stimulus during the pandemic. They've continued to climb despite the Federal Reserve hiking rates from nearly zero to north of 5% since 2022 to combat inflation.

Spitznagel has repeatedly warned that too much easy money inflated asset and credit bubbles. He expects those bubbles to burst as steeper interest costs squeeze consumers and businesses and cause the national debt to balloon even faster.

'Tinderbox time bomb'

The Universa chief told BI in March that ebullient investors were ignoring signs of trouble and assuming the market would keep climbing. He predicted stocks would keep rising, but said they could crash later this year and a recession might set in once the bubble bursts.

Spitznagel has previously raised the alarm on a "tinderbox time bomb," saying that efforts to stamp out crashes and recessions had paved the way for a greater catastrophe down the line. He's likened it to firefighters putting out smaller wildfires too early, leaving vast amounts of dry wood to fuel a far greater inferno in the future.

The author of "Safe Haven: Investing for Financial Storms" has been preparing for the worst for decades — a difficult approach as it requires enduring small losses on most days in anticipation of a massive gain at some unknown point in the future.

"It's like you're playing the piano for 10 years and you still can't play 'Chopsticks,'" Spitznagel told The New Yorker in 2002, "and the only thing you have to keep you going is the belief that one day you'll wake up and play like Rachmaninoff." 

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